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Home My WebLink AboutCouncil Presentation 06/17/2014 - Triadvocates Council Presentation 06/17/2014June 17., 2014 Legislative R eview &t Elections Outlook TRIAD OCATE S "C TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary L egislative Review TRIAD IOCATE S "C TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary Legislative Session By The Numbers 2013 Session Number of Days In Session: Bills Introduced: Bills Passed: Bills Signed: Bills Vetoed: House Bills: Senate Bills: Strike - everything amendments proposed: Strike - everything amendments adopted: TRIAD OCATE S L L d. 2013 Session 151 101 1,234 1,318 302 337 256 278 26 25 713 777 521 541 133 120 115 103 TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 3 Nt p APT Fiscal Year 2015 Budget Overview General Fund Budget of $9.3B • Increase of $360.2M Major Changes Include: • $113.4M for DCS (w/ Special Session); • $30.OM for HURF; • $187.7M for K -12; and • $32.9M for Universities Ending Balance of $131.OM • Structural Deficit of ($492.4M) Budget Uncertainties: • Lagging Revenues • K -12 Inflation Litigation - Up to $320M TRIAD 10CATE S "C TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 4 II i 1 1 - i h . Governor's Key Policy Priorities CPS Reform • Special Session Week of May 27 • Near Unanimous Support Electricity TPT Exemption for Manufacturers TRIAD IOCATE S "C • SB 1413 taxes; manufacturers' electricity sales; exemption) • Amended to Include Natural Gas Medicaid Restoration Challenges Remain • Prop. 108 Question TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary s "Ali Al Other Bills of Interest TRIAD oCATES- General • SB 1062 (exercise of religion; state action) VETOED Municipal • HB 2152 (fire district boundary changes) HELD • HB 2126 (municipal annexation; size; exception) PASSED • HB 2339 p firearms; ermit holders; public places) VETOED • HB 2414 (public records; burdensome requests) DIED • HB 2484 (lobbyists; false or unauthorized information) HELD • HB 2517 (firearms; state preemption; penalties) VETOED • HB 2561 (private certification; occupations) HELD • HB 2640 overnment (g investigations; independent third party) HELD TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 6 1 likWA 04 ,1 I A F 1 Other Bills of Interest (cont,,) TRIAD OCATE S "C Municipal (cont.) • SB 1227 (municipalities; counties; energy efficient codes) HELD • SB 1294 (second amendment violations; prohibited activities) HELD • SB 1415 (municipal elections; majority vote calculation) - S/E to Limit CFDs HELD TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 7 Elections Outlook TRIAD 10CATE S "C TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary I µ y} V� ti ,t It' ll. . 2014 Elections Congressional District 1 • R Primary: Adam Kwasman v. Gary Kiehne v. Andy Tobin • D Primary: Ann Kirkpatrick • Ds Have 7.5% Registration Advantage Congressional District 2 • R Primary: Shelley Kais v. Martha McSa[[ y v. Chuck Wooten • D Primary: Ron Barber • Rs Have 0.5% Registration Advantage • Nearly Three Way Split with Rs, Ds, and Is TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 9 - Congress TRIAD IOCATES 2014 Elections - Statewide All Statewide Offices on Ballot • Governor • Secretary of State • Attorney General • Treasurer • Superintendent of Public Instruction • Mine Inspector • Corporation Commission (2 Seats) Rs Have 5.2% Registration Advantage Statewide • Is have Narrow Majority TRIAD OCATE S "C TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 10 2014 Elections - Statewide Governor • Crowded Republican Primary TRIAD OCATE S "C Ken Bennett Christine Jones Frank Riggs TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 11 Doug Ducey Scott Smith Andy Thomas AI Melvin 2014 Elections Governor • Democrats Have Cleared the Field for Fred Duval TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 12 - Statewide (cont,,) TRIAD oCATES- 2014 Elections Secretary of State • R Primary: Wit Cardon v. Justin Pierce v. Michele Regan • D Primary: Terry Goddard Attorney General • R Primary: Mark Brnovich v. Tom Horne • D Primary: Felicia Rotellini Treasurer • R Primary: Hugh Hallman v. Jeff DeWit v. Randy Pullen TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 13 - Statewide (cont,,) TRIAD oCATES- 2014 Elections Superintendent of Public Instruction • R Primary, 9 Diane Douglas v. John Hu ppenthal Sandra Kennedy • D Primary: David Garcia v. Sharon Thomas Mine Inspector • R Primary: Joe Hart Corporation Commission (2 seats) • R Primary: Doug Little v. Tom Forese v. Lucy Mason v. Vernon Parker • D Primary: Jim Holway Et Sandra Kennedy TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 14 - Statewide (cont,,) TRIAD oCATES- f +� I µ y} VVI k1kii1w RIM ti ,t 2014 Elections Legislature TRI/�D �o��TES- All 90 Seats up for Election • 22 Current Members Not Returning Republicans Will Maintain Control • 4 Senators Already "Elected" • 5 Senators Elected in "Primary" • 8 Representatives (i.e. 4 Districts) Elected in "Primary" Senate Has 3 Seats in Play • Anywhere Between 19 Rs Et 11 Ds to 16 Rs, 13 Ds Et 1 1 • Possibility of a Contested Race for President House Has 6 Seats in Play • Anywhere Between 39 Rs Et 21 Ds to 33 Rs Et 27 Ds • New Leadership in Both Caucuses New Committees and Chairs TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 15 Current Marana Legislative Delegation TRIAD IOCATES- Sen. Steve Farley (D) District 9 Sen. Al Melvin (R) District 11 TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary Ti -wr Rep. Ethan Orr (R) District 9 Rep. Adam Kwasman(R) District 11 16 Rep. Victoria Steele (D) District 9 Rep. Steve Smith (R) District 11 11 ` I o 4, Potential Marana Legislative Delegation TRIAD IOCATES- District 9 • Senate: Steve Farley • House: Ethan Orr (R) v. Randall Friese (D) v. Victoria Steele (D) • Ds Have 4.4% Registration Advantage • Rs and Is Nearly Equal District 11 • Senate: Scott Bartle (R) v. Steve Smith (R) v. Jo Holt (D) • House: Jo Grant (R) v. Mark Finchem (R) v. Vince Leach (R) v. Hollace Lyon (D) • Rs Have 12.4% Registration Advantage TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 17 Thank You Questions and Discussion TRIAD IOCATE S "C TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 18